Politics Archives — Urban Equity Consulting Services

No mistake about it. Housing is unaffordable worldwide. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated housing inequities. Demand for affordable housing continues to increase, putting pressure on municipalities outside of major metropolitan centres to provide housing. Vacancy rates in existing purpose built rental units will eventually creep back up making construction of new units paramount. The housing market bubble is about to burst and there maybe evidence to support this.

The housing market downturn in Canada maybe happening as we speak. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) announced last week that the national housing market sector moved from moderate to high vulnerability during the second quarter with major municipalities of Toronto, Ottawa and Montréal shouldering all the risk. In fact, recently a home in North York dropped nearly $500,000 from its original asking price from a year ago.

Here are also some startling projections from the demand side in Ontario taken from a recent report from the Smart Prosperity Institute:

Of the 910,000 net new households formed over the next ten years, primarily made up of couples planning on having children, we project that 195,000 will live in high-rise apartments (of five storeys or more), while 715,000 will live in all other forms of housing.

1.475 million new households, with a head of household currently under the age of 55, will be formed over the next ten years. Of these, approximately 225,000 will live in high-rise apartments, with the rest living in other forms of housing.

Of the 225,000 new young households that will live in high-rise apartment units, only 30,000 units will be freed up by the generational turnover of those currently over the age of 55.

Generational turnover of other forms of housing will house roughly 45% of the new young families that will live in forms of housing other than high-rise apartments. The rest will come from new home construction.

Differences between levels of generational turnover are substantial. In some communities, generational turnover can provide an adequate supply of housing for the next generation. In other communities, it only scratches the surface. (Source: Smart Prosperity Institute, p. IV, October 2021)

While there has been "some" progress with Canada's National Housing Strategy, clearly the housing bubble is about to burst. More changes are going to be necessary from policy and regulatory perspectives in order for this collision to be avoided. It will be telling if this a blip or a sign of things to come.

One such solution in addressing housing affordability is eliminating or modifying single family residential zoning to build missing middle housing. Single family residential zones only allow for, as you would guess, detached or semi-detached homes within neighbourhoods. While municipalities have become flexible to include granny flats or coach houses on the same property, this is a band-aid solution to address the supply issue.

Protection of single family residential neighbourhoods has racial and classist undertones to them. These are barriers to providing rental housing as well as home ownership. In the United States, single-family zones have been associated with redlining and covenants that exclude racialized and marginalized people, which then become barriers to providing rental housing as well as home ownership. While in Canada, NIMBYs that are behind protection of the neighbourhoods through ratepayers associations is evidence on why zoning changes are difficult to come by.

In risk-averse compliant Canada, there finally seems to be a general consensus among housing advocates that this should happen sooner rather than later. For instance, the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) recently posted an statement about fixing the affordability crisis through upzoning.

OREA is encouraging the Province to use the Planning Act to implement as-of-right zoning in Ontario’s highest-demand urban neighbourhoods. This change would allow the seamless and legal development of gentle density, including duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes, next door to existing density and close to subway and transit stations without unnecessary and lengthy case-by-case approvals.
Source: OREA, September 29, 2021

Oregon was the first state to ban single family zoning. Minneapolis was the first city to eliminate single-family zoning in 2020. Portland followed their lead too. California recently passed several bills to address the housing crisis including State Bill 9 (SB 9), which gives homeowners the ability to build multifamily residential on their own properties.

There will be detractors to this policy proposal. For example, in response to the passing of SB9, The Terner Center for Housing Innovation indicated that the legislation could be relevant for 1 in 20 single family home parcels. The law was watered down slightly to instill protections for existing renters and those in heritage districts. Parcels of land in major urban centres are already expensive in California. This is no different in the Greater Toronto Area and Metro Vancouver for example. So developers may not have the incentive to build in the end.

The province must take swift action to modify land use policies within the Planning Act. While there is evidence that building housing of all types by eliminating single family zones- especially in major transit station areas (MTSAs)- is necessary. The ultimate purpose is to build affordable housing equitably and without prejudice. Of course there must be financial levers in place, a matter of federal monetary policy, as a starting point to help make this happen. Collaboration with municipal planning agencies, land developers, and other stakeholders/rights holders will be critical in making eliminating single family zoning a success, and potentially making housing affordable.

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Every year, I would write a post reviewing what transpired over the year and plans to move forward. Last year it did not happen because of a major upheaval. This year, I decided to return to the long standing tradition.

This year it is a year of transition, while remaining consistent with others. The biggest accomplishment this year was the recommencement of graduate school in September to complete the Masters of Public Administration (MPA) program in Local Government at Western University. The last time I was in school was March 2016. Tragedy stuck where I lost my mother and took a lot of out of me emotionally. Now I return with greater confidence and purpose.

My research interests have slightly changed. I initially went into the program concentrating on regional transit governance. Those who have followed my blog, or those on social media, noticed my constant defense on the subject. I have been out of the transit profession for a while and the planning profession for three years and have been more focused on strategic and equitable leadership in local government. While governance remains a subject of interest from an organizational perspective, the majority of recent blog posts concentrated on racial and social equity.

This year's international and national events surrounding addressing and eradicating racism after the deaths of innocent Black people with of Ahmaud Arbery, Breonna Taylor, George Floyd, and Regis Korchinski-Paquet was one factor. My post Enough is Enough from May highlighted my frustrations with systemic racism and my lived experiences navigating through White spaces in the professional world, and my own personal lived experiences from childhood to today.

Another factor was highlighted by the COVID pandemic that exacerbated the existing anti-Black racism and income gaps surrounding transit, public health and housing. Earlier this year, I contributed to an article to The Local Health Magazine where I spoke about my experience on the Jane 35, a Toronto transit bus route that traverses low-income neighbourhoods and where the hardest hit communities with COVID.

The plethora of Zoom webinars and meetings came with some positive results. One of them was meeting Carlton Eley, who provided me with some input on successfully maneuvering through the professional world focused on racial equity. I am forever grateful in him suggesting a book from Susan T Gooden titled Race and Social Equity: A Nervous Area of Government. I summarized the book in a post from the summer related to disrupting the status quo in the public sector. I will be incorporating some of her thoughts into my major research paper.

During this pandemic, I took up running as a form of physical activity in lieu of gyms being closed. As novice runner, it was more for exercise as well as visiting new neighbourhoods such as Oak Ridge and Birch Cliff in Scarborough and trails like the Finch West Hydro Corridor and the Beltline Trail.

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But my social justice conscience went into high gear where I witnessed such disparities between the aforementioned Jane Street corridor and the Swansea neighbourhood as well as my experience seeing a makeshift encampment in Alexandra Park in Downtown Toronto. It was my last post on addressing the housing inequities in the City.

Finally, I started Urban Equity Consulting as a stop gap to find a way to work on contract developing solutions in strategic and technical urban planning and policy. But work has been scarce. It will be a placeholder to add racial and social equity to my practice once I complete graduate school and gain more experience in that area.

I predict the first half of 2021 will be more of the same, even with the discovery and distribution of vaccines among the general public. I will be graduating with a MPA degree in hand with a paper that hopes to carry me forward in my career, running a consistent 6:30 minute per kilometre pace, either continuing my practice with greater fervor or landing a full-time job - which the latter is preferred, and volunteering for causes with a strong racial equity focus.

I am looking forward to completing this transition in 2021 with greater purpose and success. Who's ready to come for the ride? Drop me a note in the comments or follow me on my various social media channels.

There is nervousness is the public sector based on the lack of recognition of racial and social equity reflected in our policies and governance structures. It is time to disrupt the status quo

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I'VE HAD ENOUGH!!!

Enough with the systemic racism. Enough for the violence against blacks and other people of colour, regardless of gender and ability. Enough with the constructs that tell us to "wait our turn". Enough with the fact that we have to "code switch" to conform to others' insecurities just to get ahead. Enough with the "angry black woman" prejudices when they have to speak their mind. It is enough it took a pandemic for socio-demographic data to be collected, albeit in select jurisdictions, to determine how people of colour will have been disproportionately affected. I'm tired of it all!

My post has been nearly a week in the making. The events of recent days from Amy Cooper's antics in Central Park in Manhattan, to the MURDER of George Floyd in Minneapolis to the continuing protests prompted me to write this blog post. Ottawa resident Kevin Bourne and Toronto Star reporter Shree Paradkar provided me with the push to write this post today.

While my post will be flanked by those with greater penmanship than myself who have written in the New York Times, The Atlantic, The Globe and Mail, and the Los Angeles Times, to name a few, I could not stay silent on this issue any longer.

Originally, I hastily wrote a Facebook post with random observations - although biased with my own confirmations - on the Jane 35 bus after from my run along a closed Lakeshore Boulevard in Toronto.

Passengers on the Jane bus, who were predominantly people of colour like me, were insecurely negotiating their right to space and comfort. Many came from or going to work or grocery shopping. Some had their faces covered while others did not. Even with my earbuds on, it was difficult not to overhear tensions rising. There was constant paranoia between passenger who thought they were too close. There was some choice words even directed at the bus driver. At times, I thought a fight would break out.

To put this in context, the Jane Street corridor between Bloor and Dundas Streets going northbound starts with the tony Baby Point neighbourhood. North of the railroad tracks lies several kilometres of low to middle income neighbourhoods - Woolner, Mount Dennis, Tretheway, Chalkfarm and Jane and Finch. These neighbourhoods are lined with strip plazas full of local businesses that are struggling to survive, cheque-cashing stores and liquor stores. These, along with public housing and aging infrastructure, are the forgotten densities that Jay Pitter speaks of when she discussed confronting distance between desire and disparity.

Democratization of public space is only part of the issue. I spoke about this in last summer's Spacing post on perceived accessibility based on my lived experiences. Other occurrences over the years included:

Being called a "Paki" because of my brown skin.
Having personally experienced theft from another black male.
Being treated differently by a De La Salle High School vice-principal when I and a white student both skipped school.
Hiding my Trinidadian culture from women I dated because their families couldn't accept me for who I am.

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It is the institutions and their constructs that have brought us to this point. I raised the issue of a lack of racial equity in planning circles well over a year and a half ago. For this reason, it partially prompted me not to renew my Canadian planning designation.

Reading the vitriolic responses from insecure whites to Shree Pardkar's Toronto Star article in response to the social distancing shitshow at Trinity Bellwoods Park from last weekend was shameful and disgusting.

Anti-black racism still exists. Housing discrimination exists. Spatial mismatch and lack of coordination by Greater Toronto Area transit agencies, which is a topic I raised 16 years ago, continues to exist. The lack of attention towards addressing racial and social inequities in transit service continues to exist. Pay gaps, lack of promotions in the civil service, and lack of diversity on non-profit boards continue to exist. It is the brutal unchecked police violence against black men and women that continues to exist. With all of these situations, there becomes the instilled fear, paranoia, impatience and unrest on both sides of the border. We cannot stand by and watch moment like these pass us by with inaction.

Audrey Smith. Andrew Loku. George Floyd. Tamir Rice. Rodney King. Amadou Diallo. Say their names!

I will end with the final paragraph in Kevin Bourne's post:

For those who consider themselves allies, allyship means not only saying something on social media; it means saying something at the office, at church or in the community. Real change won’t come until allyship goes beyond social media and permeates our neighbourhoods, workplaces, and businesses. Until then it’s business as usual.

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!

Ok I wasn't the only one that said it. Overnight, global markets tanked in reaction to falling gas prices, which affected the North American exchanges and prompted a briefly halt to trading moments after the markets opened this morning.

It is now time to revisit this need to rely on oil.

In 2009, as a green planner, I read Jeff Rubin's book Why Your World is About to Get Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization. In 2012, he wrote a second book, The End of Growth. While it has been a while since I read both books, his wild predictions were interesting. He wrote them during a time when global gas prices were astronomical.

People will not just abandon their cars en masse, but they will use them less and less. If I have to drive to work, I might not be able to afford to use my car anywhere else when the cost of filling the tank is going to run north of $100. And for some 10 million Americans or so, the cost of driving will rise so high that they really will have to get off the road. As people start to park their cars for longer and longer periods, they will increasingly want to get on the subway or LRT. And when they do, the legacy of North America’s past transportation choices will come back to haunt the continent.
Excerpt from Why Your World is About to Get Smaller

The opposite has happened!

Senior governments saw an opportunity to close the gap on already decreasing transit funding by introducing gas taxes. The Canadian and American governments pegged the dollar to the price of oil. Now that peak oil has come and gone, it is time to rethink how public transit is funded.

Over the course of the last year, there have been several shocks to the oil markets - 2 times in a month alone gas prices have been below $1 a litre. Psychologically, drivers will naturally line up at gas stations to take advantage of these low prices. Many will abandon transit in the short term. But change must occur.

Road pricing, when proposed, has literally been deemed political suicide. While for over a decade, London has had cordon pricing in their downtown core. New York City has proposed one for Manhattan, but now New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo stated that the Trump government is holding it back based on technicalities with FHA funding.

The Federal Highway Administration can derail congestion pricing because federal law prohibits the installation of tolls on roads built with federal money — and some of the streets inside the toll cordon, Manhattan south of 61st Street, minus the FDR Drive or West Side Highway, are part of the National Highway System.
Streetsblog February 11, 2020

Late last year, the Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario published a report "Ontario's Downward Trend for Fuel Tax Revenue: Will Road Pricing Fill The Gap?" In the report, the points emanated from their analysis:

The growth of fuel-efficient and hybrid vehicles will rise.
Behavioural and technological shifts will result in decreasing gas tax revenues even though congestion will remain constant.
The Province should implement dynamic pricing and parking levies, especially in larger municipalities.

In 2015, the Canadian Urban Transit Association put out an Alternative Funding Report, but did not insofar, make any recommendations on the best way to fund transit.

It's not the first time these were proposed. Metrolinx, in 2013, released its investment strategy, years after their first Regional Transportation Plan - The Big Move. There were public consultations throughout the region to garner support for their proposal. Seeing waning support especially in the GTA suburbs, the Liberals kiboshed the plan and the results of the public consultation were scrapped from their website.

In 2018, when Toronto mayor John Tory proposed tolling the Gardiner Expressway to fund transit, GTA politicians cried wolf. The Provincial Liberals panicked and nixed the idea. They lost the election.

Just like this Streetsblog article proposes, it is time for Canadian transit agencies a wage an aggressive campaign and take advantage of the falling gas prices. This has to include, parking levies and congestion pricing as the RCCAO proposes. Also it is time for a carefully administered and equitable regional sales tax, like in California's cities, to fund major transit projects, purchase more buses and to fund operations.

While Jeff Rubin was partially right with his predictions, we both told you so.

Older Posts

Classic list

Would eliminating single family zoning be a cure to solve the housing affordability crisis?

2020 Year In Review. It was one of transition.

Disrupting the Status Quo: Breaking Nervousness in the Public Sector

Enough is Enough

We can’t rely on the gas tax anymore

Elevating Healthcare Leadership with AI and Cultural Intelligence

Culturally Appropriate Health Hubs: A Path to Health Equity and Social Inclusion

Deconstructing Virtue Signalling in the Lens of Equity, Inclusion, and Belonging: A Leadership Imperative

Understanding the Distinction: Standalone EIB Strategic Plan vs. Embedding EIB Into a Strategic Plan

How Middle Managers are the Linchpin to Equity and Inclusion Success

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